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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

48-29  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jun 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

37-41  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Chase Petty
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Petty

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Megill None-None 3.72 -- 1.0 --
Chase Petty None-None 3.93 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.72 Ldr ERA 3.93
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
47%
📊
REDS
53%
BREWERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Cincinnati)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

47.0%

Reds Cover

53.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

MIL By 1-2 runs

17.9%

MIL By 3-4 runs

12.7%

CIN By 1-2 runs

18.9%

CIN By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
MILWAUKEE
4.9
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CIN @ MIL 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 CIN @ MIL 9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026 CIN @ MIL 0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026 MIL @ CIN 8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026 MIL @ CIN 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.743 ▲
OPS
.699
154
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +203.3% more
Cincinnati: 3.7 vs Milwaukee: 1.2
Errors (L5) +56.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6 vs Milwaukee: 0.1
Home Runs (Season) +38.3% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Milwaukee: 154.0
Home Runs (L5) +15.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6 vs Milwaukee: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.6 2
CIN Score 4.9 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.1 / 7.7 2.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 11.1 14.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 10.5 2.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.7 / 1.2 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIL
CIN
MIL
ML
55% 88-71
62% 101-61
49% 79-81
52% 84-78
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 94-68
50% 80-80
48% 78-84
TTL
53% 81-73-5
40% 62-92-8
54% 83-72-5
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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