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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

41-37  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, Jun 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

34-44  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Rolison
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Rolison

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cionel Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Cionel Perez

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Rolison None-None 1.88 -- 1.0 2
Cionel Perez None-None 5.34 -- 2.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.88 Ldr ERA 5.34
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.1
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
48%
📊
METS
52%
CUBS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (New York)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

47.0%

Mets Cover

53.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

CHC By 1-2 runs

17.9%

CHC By 3-4 runs

12.7%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.9%

NYM By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
CHICAGO
5.1
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 CHC @ NYM 4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 CHC @ NYM 10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 CHC @ NYM 9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026 NYM @ CHC 1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 NYM @ CHC 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.374
OPS
▲ .705
0
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20400.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +381.0% more
New York: 4.3 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +91.0% more
New York: 1.1 vs Chicago: 0.2
Walks (L5) +34.2% more
New York: 2.6 vs Chicago: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.8 9
NYM Score 5.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 11.2 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.5 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 6.2 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 18.5 12.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.0 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CHC
NYM
CHC
ML
50% 79-80
58% 93-68
48% 76-83
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-66
61% 97-63-1
49% 78-81
47% 75-85-1
TTL
55% 80-66-13
52% 81-74-6
51% 74-72-13
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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