ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
48-29 | Road
0
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
40-37 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Dodd
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Dodd | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.84 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.93
ERA
Ldr 0.84
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
49%
PADRES
51%
BRAVES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
89%
Under 0
11%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
SD By 1-2 runs
18.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.3
ATLANTA
San Diego
4.4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
72% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.7
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
SD @ ATL
5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026
SD @ ATL
6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026
SD @ ATL
8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SD @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
ATL @ SD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
San Diego
SD
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.757
OPS
▲
.925
1
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+24.0% more
San Diego: 8.9
vs
Atlanta: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+20.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Atlanta: 5.0
Walks (L5)
+17.5% more
San Diego: 3.4
vs
Atlanta: 2.9
OPS (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Atlanta: 75.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.3
0
SD Score
4.4
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.2
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 8.2
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 12.1
8.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.9
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ATL
SD
ATL
ML
51%
85-83
46%
77-90
51%
85-82
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
96-71
55%
92-75
52%
87-81
TTL
51%
82-80-6
53%
83-73-11
54%
86-74-6
49%
76-80-11
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