BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
38-42 | Road
6
LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
32-48 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Fermin
#65 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 1.95 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jose Fermin | None-None | 4.42 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.95 Ldr
ERA
4.42
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
44%
ANGELS
56%
ORIOLES
--
ANGELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
66%
Under 0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.5%
LAA By 1-2 runs
19.4%
LAA By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.5
BALTIMORE
Los Angeles
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Los Angeles
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Angels
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Angels
Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
A
Sim
Angels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
A
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
LAA @ BAL
4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
LAA @ BAL
2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026
LAA @ BAL
1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
BAL @ LAA
6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026
BAL @ LAA
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Los Angeles
LAA
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.711
▲
OPS
.679
199
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+27.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0
vs
Baltimore: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+23.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.4
vs
Baltimore: 3.6
Home Runs (L5)
+18.6% more
Los Angeles: 2.2
vs
Baltimore: 1.9
Total Bases (L5)
+9.2% more
Los Angeles: 19.1
vs
Baltimore: 17.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
6
LAA Score
5.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.1 / 9.5
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.5
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
19.1 / 17.5
10.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.6
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BAL
LAA
BAL
ML
59%
96-66
53%
83-73
55%
89-73
57%
90-69
ATS
60%
97-65
61%
95-60-1
51%
82-80
57%
90-68-1
TTL
53%
83-74-5
54%
81-70-5
52%
82-75-5
51%
78-75-6
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