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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

39-39  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Jun 22 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

42-34  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jonathan Loaisiga
STARTING PITCHER

Jonathan Loaisiga

#43 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jonathan Loaisiga None-None 2.83 -- 0.1 --
Riley O'Brien None-None 4.05 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.83 Ldr ERA 4.05
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
📊
CARDINALS
54%
DIAMONDBACKS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (St. Louis)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

45.0%

Cardinals Cover

55.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

ARI By 1-2 runs

17.5%

ARI By 3-4 runs

12.1%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.1%

STL By 3-4 runs

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
ARIZONA
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Diamondbacks (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 23, 2026 ARI @ STL 10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026 STL @ ARI 7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026 STL @ ARI 3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026 STL @ ARI 5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026 ARI @ STL 9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.720 ▲
OPS
.691
166
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +90.0% more
St. Louis: 1.5 vs Arizona: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +60.3% more
St. Louis: 19.1 vs Arizona: 11.9
Hits (L5) +42.1% more
St. Louis: 11.4 vs Arizona: 8.0
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8 vs Arizona: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.5 2
STL Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.4 / 8.0 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 5.5 2.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 19.1 / 11.9 7.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.3 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ARI
STL
ARI
ML
53% 85-74
54% 87-74
52% 84-77
54% 86-74
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 91-70
53% 85-76
56% 89-71
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 80-73-8
50% 76-75-10
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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