CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
41-38 | Road
5
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
40-37 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Murphy
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.78 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
| Chris Murphy | None-None | 5.27 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.78 Ldr
ERA
5.27
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
43%
WHITE SOX
57%
GUARDIANS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
83%
Under 0
17%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.2%
CLE By 3-4 runs
11.8%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5.4
CLEVELAND
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.4
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 8, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 5
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.696
OPS
▲
.826
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+52.0% more
Chicago: 0.8
vs
Cleveland: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Walks (L5)
+32.5% more
Chicago: 3.6
vs
Cleveland: 2.7
Home Runs (L5)
+17.1% more
Chicago: 1.4
vs
Cleveland: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.4
5
CHW Score
6.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 6.4
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.0
15.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 11.6
16.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.7
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CLE
CHW
CLE
ML
49%
81-86
54%
87-74
56%
94-73
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
99-68
58%
93-68
56%
93-74
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
96-69-2
55%
88-71-2
51%
84-81-2
43%
69-90-2
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