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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

47-29  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Jun 22 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

37-40  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brock Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Burke

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Megill None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 1
Brock Burke None-None 2.97 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 ERA Ldr 2.97
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
56%
📊
REDS
44%
BREWERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 52%
Under 0 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

43.1%

Reds Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.4%

MIL By 3-4 runs

15.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

17.0%

CIN By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
MILWAUKEE
4.5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CIN @ MIL 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 CIN @ MIL 9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026 CIN @ MIL 0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026 MIL @ CIN 8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026 MIL @ CIN 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.743 ▲
OPS
.699
154
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +20.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Hits (L5) +19.4% more
Milwaukee: 10.1 vs Cincinnati: 8.1
Strikeouts (L5) +14.0% more
Milwaukee: 9.6 vs Cincinnati: 8.3
OPS (Season) +4.4%
Milwaukee: 74.3% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.2 2
CIN Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 10.1 2.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.6 11.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 13.8 2.0 / 4.0
Walks 4.1 / 1.8 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
96%MONEY4%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIL
CIN
MIL
ML
55% 88-71
62% 101-61
49% 79-81
52% 84-78
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 94-68
50% 80-80
48% 78-84
TTL
53% 81-73-5
40% 62-92-8
54% 83-72-5
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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