HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
37-43 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
39-39 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan King | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.84 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45
ERA
Ldr 0.84
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
52%
BLUE JAYS
48%
ASTROS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
13.9%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.5
HOUSTON
Toronto
4.4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TOR @ HOU
5 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
TOR @ HOU
2 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TOR @ HOU
3 - 1
Jun 24, 2026
HOU @ TOR
3 - 1
Jun 23, 2026
HOU @ TOR
9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.582
OPS
▲
.692
4
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+39.2% more
Houston: 11.0
vs
Toronto: 6.7
Home Runs (Season)
+3700.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+379.7% more
Toronto: 6.4
vs
Houston: 1.3
Errors (L5)
+114.0% more
Toronto: 1.2
vs
Houston: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.5
2
TOR Score
4.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 7.7
11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 11.0
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 12.8
15.0 / 5.0
Walks
6.4 / 1.3
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
HOU
TOR
HOU
ML
46%
74-87
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
47%
77-87
ATS
56%
90-71
56%
91-72
49%
79-81
55%
90-74
TTL
51%
80-76-5
45%
70-84-9
45%
70-85-5
45%
69-86-9
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