PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
42-36 | Road
1
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
41-38 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Shugart
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Shugart | None-None | 3.16 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 3.47 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.16 Ldr
ERA
3.47
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
46%
NATIONALS
54%
PHILLIES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
12.4%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.0%
WSH By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.5
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
4.9
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
73% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.724
OPS
▲
.744
3
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+6900.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+44.9% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Walks (L5)
+21.2% more
Washington: 3.1
vs
Philadelphia: 2.6
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.5%
Washington: 32.1%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.5
1
WSH Score
4.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 10.5
12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 10.7
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 18.9
21.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.6
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
57%
92-69
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-68
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
57%
88-67-9
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-76-9
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