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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

33-46  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Jun 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

43-32  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Craig Kimbrel
STARTING PITCHER

Craig Kimbrel

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cam Booser
STARTING PITCHER

Cam Booser

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Craig Kimbrel None-None 5.21 -- 1.0 --
Cam Booser None-None 1.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.21 ERA Ldr 1.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
35%
📊
RAYS
65%
ROYALS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 77%
Under 0 23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Tampa Bay)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

33.5%

Rays Cover

66.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

KC By 1-2 runs

14.4%

KC By 3-4 runs

8.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.4
KANSAS CITY
6.1
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rays Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Rays Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.5
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 TB @ KC 5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026 TB @ KC 4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026 TB @ KC 10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026 KC @ TB 2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026 KC @ TB 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .728
170 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +56.1% more
Tampa Bay: 8.2 vs Kansas City: 5.2
Runs per Game (Season) +6.6% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Batting Avg (Season) +1.1%
Tampa Bay: 25.8% vs Kansas City: 24.7%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.0%
Tampa Bay: 32.6% vs Kansas City: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.4 2
TB Score 6.1 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 11.6 6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 5.2 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 22.1 9.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
KC
TB
KC
ML
58% 95-68
55% 89-72
58% 95-68
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-66
57% 91-70
55% 90-73
58% 93-67
TTL
47% 73-81-9
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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