Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Tigers NYY @ DET

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

46-31  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Jun 22 • 6:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

34-44  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Yarbrough
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Yarbrough

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Drew Sommers
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Sommers

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Yarbrough None-None 3.99 -- 2.0 --
Drew Sommers None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.99 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
48%
📊
TIGERS
52%
YANKEES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Detroit)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

48.0%

Tigers Cover

52.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.1%

NYY By 3-4 runs

13.0%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.4
NEW YORK
4.6
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 DET @ NYY 6 - 2
Jun 30, 2026 DET @ NYY 9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026 DET @ NYY 7 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 NYY @ DET 4 - 2
Jun 23, 2026 NYY @ DET 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Detroit DET
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
1.041 ▲
OPS
.720
2
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8950.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs New York: 2.0
Errors (L5) +56.9% more
New York: 1.1 vs Detroit: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season) +50.4% more
New York: 9.0 vs Detroit: 4.5
OPS (Season) +32.1%
New York: 1.0% vs Detroit: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.4 3
DET Score 4.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.9 / 8.2 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 9.7 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 13.5 16.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.1 / 2.5 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
NYY
DET
NYY
ML
54% 86-73
47% 76-85
54% 87-73
52% 85-77
ATS
64% 101-58
59% 95-66
57% 91-69
53% 86-76
TTL
46% 69-81-9
53% 81-73-7
46% 69-81-10
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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