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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

37-41  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Jun 20 • 10:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

39-37  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Yoendrys Gomez
STARTING PITCHER

Yoendrys Gomez

#94 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ildemaro Vargas
STARTING PITCHER

Ildemaro Vargas

#6 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yoendrys Gomez None-None 3.75 -- 1.0 1
Ildemaro Vargas None-None 0.00 -- 1.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.75 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
50%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
50%
TWINS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MINNESOTA
5
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Twins (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 MIN @ ARI 4 - 2
Jun 20, 2026 MIN @ ARI 16 - 8
Jun 19, 2026 MIN @ ARI 5 - 9
Sep 14, 2025 ARI @ MIN 6 - 4
Sep 13, 2025 ARI @ MIN 5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
OPS
.720
187 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +13.5% more
Arizona: 3.1 vs Minnesota: 2.8
Home Runs (L5) +63.7% more
Minnesota: 2.6 vs Arizona: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +24.3% more
Minnesota: 19.8 vs Arizona: 15.0
Strikeouts (L5) +16.4% more
Minnesota: 8.6 vs Arizona: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.0 16
ARI Score 5.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 10.8 8.0 / 20.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 2.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 8.6 3.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 19.8 13.0 / 31.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.8 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
MIN
ARI
MIN
ML
54% 87-74
52% 84-78
54% 86-74
50% 80-81
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
56% 89-71
59% 95-66
TTL
52% 80-73-8
51% 78-75-9
49% 73-77-9
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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