Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Phillies NYM @ PHI

NEW YORK

METSNYM

34-43  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Jun 21 • 7:20 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

42-35  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
@
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.75 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.75
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
METS
26%
📊
PHILLIES
74%
METS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Philadelphia)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

25.8%

Phillies Cover

74.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

NYM By 1-2 runs

11.8%

NYM By 3-4 runs

6.3%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.0%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
NEW YORK
7.2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Phillies Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Phillies Win
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Phillies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.6
B
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 11.8
A
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.705
OPS
▲ .724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +32.2% more
Philadelphia: 1.9 vs New York: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +31.7% more
Philadelphia: 20.4 vs New York: 15.5
Hits (L5) +16.2% more
Philadelphia: 11.2 vs New York: 9.6
Strikeouts (L5) +8.8% more
Philadelphia: 9.0 vs New York: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.6 2
PHI Score 7.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.2 / 9.6 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 8.3 14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 20.4 / 15.5 16.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.4 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59% 97-67
50% 79-80
49% 80-84
48% 76-83
ATS
65% 107-57
58% 93-66
51% 83-81
49% 78-81
TTL
57% 88-67-9
55% 80-66-13
51% 78-76-9
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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