BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
31-44 | Road
1
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
40-39 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | None-None | 3.08 | -- | 6.0 | 2 |
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 5.27 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.08 Ldr
ERA
5.27
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
42%
MARINERS
58%
RED SOX
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.9%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.6
BOSTON
Seattle
4.5
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.1
A
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SEA @ BOS
8 - 3
Sep 1, 2026
SEA @ BOS
9 - 6
Aug 31, 2026
SEA @ BOS
8 - 9
Jun 21, 2026
BOS @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 20, 2026
BOS @ SEA
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.409
OPS
▲
.693
2
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9000.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+310.0% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Seattle: 0.7
vs
Boston: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+28.4%
Seattle: 69.3%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.6
1
SEA Score
4.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
3.9 / 7.4
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 8.5
13.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
6.2 / 12.2
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
BOS
SEA
BOS
ML
50%
81-81
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
47%
76-87
ATS
60%
98-64
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
48%
79-84
TTL
56%
85-67-10
46%
72-83-5
53%
81-71-10
47%
74-83-6
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