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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

32-47  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Jun 21 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

38-40  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Bachman None-None 3.63 -- 1.0 --
Elvis Alvarado None-None 5.49 -- 1.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.63 Ldr ERA 5.49
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
57%
📊
ATHLETICS
43%
ANGELS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

43.1%

Athletics Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.4%

LAA By 3-4 runs

15.5%

ATH By 1-2 runs

17.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.2
LOS ANGELES
5.5
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
7
LOS ANGELES
4
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim Angels (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.7
A
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 LAA @ ATH 3 - 7
Sep 22, 2026 LAA @ ATH 7 - 9
Jun 28, 2026 ATH @ LAA 1 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 ATH @ LAA 2 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATH @ LAA 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .719
154
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Athletics: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +17.9% more
Los Angeles: 19.1 vs Athletics: 15.7
Hits (L5) +17.9% more
Los Angeles: 10.1 vs Athletics: 8.3
Home Runs (Season) +26.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 6.2 9
ATH Score 5.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.3 / 10.1 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.8 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.8 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.7 / 19.1 11.0 / 19.0
Walks 4.1 / 4.1 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
LAA
ATH
LAA
ML
59% 95-67
59% 96-66
54% 87-74
55% 89-73
ATS
52% 84-78
60% 97-65
50% 81-80
51% 82-80
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 83-74-5
42% 66-90-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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