Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Rockies PIT @ COL

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

39-39  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Jun 21 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

30-48  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Gregory Soto
STARTING PITCHER

Gregory Soto

#31 | Relief Pitcher
@
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gregory Soto None-None 3.34 -- 1.0 1
Juan Mejia None-None 6.95 -- 1.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.34 Ldr ERA 6.95
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
75%
📊
ROCKIES
25%
PIRATES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

76.6%

Rockies Cover

23.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

19.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

10.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

5.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7.5
PITTSBURGH
4.6
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Pirates Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Rockies Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
B
Sim Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o11.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.1
A
Sim u11.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 PIT @ COL 8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026 PIT @ COL 1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 PIT @ COL 3 - 4
May 14, 2026 COL @ PIT 2 - 7
May 13, 2026 COL @ PIT 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.734
OPS
▲ .739
186 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +19.7% more
Pittsburgh: 3.2 vs Colorado: 2.5
Hits (L5) +9.5% more
Pittsburgh: 8.7 vs Colorado: 7.9
Home Runs (Season) +3.2% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Colorado: 180.0
Runs per Game (Season) +1.9% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Colorado: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 7.5 8
COL Score 4.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 8.7 8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.6 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 15.0 12.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.2 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PIT
COL
PIT
ML
60% 97-64
52% 82-77
55% 88-73
52% 85-78
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 86-73
52% 83-78
50% 81-82
TTL
60% 93-62-6
47% 72-81-6
50% 77-78-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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