SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
39-37 | Road
3
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
37-40 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jakob Junis
#16 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 1.46 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jakob Junis | None-None | 1.97 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.46 Ldr
ERA
1.97
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
44%
RANGERS
56%
PADRES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
SD By 1-2 runs
17.0%
SD By 3-4 runs
11.5%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Texas
4.7
TEXAS
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
SD @ TEX
3 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
SD @ TEX
6 - 4
Jun 19, 2026
SD @ TEX
7 - 9
Jul 6, 2025
TEX @ SD
1 - 4
Jul 5, 2025
TEX @ SD
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.925
▲
OPS
.713
4
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4475.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Hits (L5)
+12.3% more
Texas: 10.0
vs
San Diego: 8.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.8% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Texas: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+21.2%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Texas: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.0
3
TEX Score
4.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 8.9
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.1
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 15.0
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.0
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SD
TEX
SD
ML
53%
86-76
51%
85-83
57%
91-70
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
92-70
54%
91-77
61%
98-63
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
78-70-14
51%
82-80-6
55%
81-66-14
54%
86-74-6
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