ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
41-34 | Road
12
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
32-46 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Strahm
#25 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 4.18 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Matt Strahm | None-None | 6.46 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.18 Ldr
ERA
6.46
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
46%
ROYALS
54%
CARDINALS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
22%
Under 0
78%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
STL By 1-2 runs
17.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.4%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.0%
KC By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.9
ST. LOUIS
Kansas City
4.3
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
71% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.2
A
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
STL @ KC
12 - 10
Jun 19, 2026
STL @ KC
5 - 6
Jun 18, 2026
STL @ KC
6 - 14
May 17, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 0
May 16, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.718
167
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+143.0% more
Kansas City: 1.7
vs
St. Louis: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+66.8% more
Kansas City: 21.1
vs
St. Louis: 12.6
Walks (L5)
+56.1% more
Kansas City: 3.8
vs
St. Louis: 2.4
Hits (L5)
+26.5% more
Kansas City: 11.4
vs
St. Louis: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.9
12
KC Score
4.3
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.4 / 9.0
12.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.3
4.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
4.3 / 5.8
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
21.1 / 12.6
24.0 / 32.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.4
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
STL
KC
STL
ML
55%
89-72
53%
85-74
56%
90-70
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
89-70
58%
93-67
53%
85-76
TTL
58%
90-64-7
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-70-7
50%
76-75-10
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