WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
40-38 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
43-31 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 2.60 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.38
ERA
Ldr 2.60
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
44%
RAYS
56%
NATIONALS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
WSH By 1-2 runs
17.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
12.1%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.2
WASHINGTON
Tampa Bay
4.7
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
WSH @ TB
3 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
WSH @ TB
4 - 3
Jun 19, 2026
WSH @ TB
2 - 5
Aug 31, 2025
TB @ WSH
7 - 4
Aug 30, 2025
TB @ WSH
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744
▲
OPS
.728
210
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.6% more
Tampa Bay: 7.7
vs
Washington: 6.7
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.2%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Home Runs (L5)
+55.0% more
Washington: 1.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.2
3
TB Score
4.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.4
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.5
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 6.7
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 14.7
19.0 / 11.0
Walks
1.7 / 3.7
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
WSH
TB
WSH
ML
58%
95-68
57%
92-69
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
ATS
60%
97-66
58%
93-68
55%
90-73
57%
91-70
TTL
47%
73-81-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-75-10
42%
65-90-6
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