MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
46-29 | Road
9
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
48-28 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chad Patrick
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Reynaldo Lopez
#40 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Patrick | None-None | 3.30 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | None-None | 3.50 | -- | 3.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.30 Ldr
ERA
3.50
--
WHIP
--
3.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
48%
BRAVES
52%
BREWERS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.1%
MIL By 3-4 runs
13.0%
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.1
MILWAUKEE
Atlanta
4.3
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim
Brewers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
ATL @ MIL
4 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 4
Aug 21, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 2
Jun 21, 2026
MIL @ ATL
9 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
MIL @ ATL
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.743
OPS
▲
.757
154
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+70.0% more
Atlanta: 1.3
vs
Milwaukee: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Atlanta: 0.5
vs
Milwaukee: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+23.7% more
Atlanta: 2.8
vs
Milwaukee: 2.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.0%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Milwaukee: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.1
9
ATL Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.6
7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 9.9
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 11.7
12.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.2
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIL
ATL
MIL
ML
46%
77-90
62%
101-61
54%
90-78
52%
84-78
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
94-68
52%
87-81
48%
78-84
TTL
53%
83-73-11
40%
62-92-8
49%
76-80-11
50%
77-77-8
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