CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
37-39 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
46-30 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Ferguson
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Fernando Cruz
#63 | RP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Ferguson | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Fernando Cruz | None-None | 2.20 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.50 Ldr
ERA
2.20
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
64%
YANKEES
36%
REDS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
17.5%
NYY By 1-2 runs
15.0%
NYY By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
7
CINCINNATI
New York
5.5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Yankees
Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 12.5
A
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
CIN @ NYY
4 - 1
Jun 20, 2026
CIN @ NYY
10 - 2
Jun 19, 2026
CIN @ NYY
0 - 5
Jun 25, 2025
NYY @ CIN
7 - 1
Jun 24, 2025
NYY @ CIN
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.699
OPS
▲
1.041
213
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+53.7% more
Cincinnati: 1.4
vs
New York: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+44.6% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
New York: 2.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+119.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
7.0
4
NYY Score
5.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.7
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.5 / 7.4
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 14.9
10.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CIN
NYY
CIN
ML
47%
76-85
55%
88-71
52%
85-77
49%
79-81
ATS
59%
95-66
54%
86-73
53%
86-76
50%
80-80
TTL
53%
81-73-7
53%
81-73-5
53%
82-72-7
54%
83-72-5
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