Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Cubs TOR @ CHC

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

38-39  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Jun 20 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

40-37  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Louis Varland
STARTING PITCHER

Louis Varland

#77 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Webb

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Louis Varland None-None 0.86 -- 2.0 2
Jacob Webb None-None 3.90 -- 0.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.86 Ldr ERA 3.90
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
41%
📊
CUBS
59%
BLUE JAYS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Chicago)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

22.7%

Cubs Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

TOR By 1-2 runs

10.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

5.4%

CHC By 1-2 runs

18.4%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TORONTO
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
5
TORONTO
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 TOR @ CHC 2 - 3
Jun 20, 2026 TOR @ CHC 8 - 6
Jun 19, 2026 TOR @ CHC 2 - 16
Aug 14, 2025 CHC @ TOR 1 - 2
Aug 13, 2025 CHC @ TOR 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.381 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.692 ▲
OPS
.374
152 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +62.6% more
Chicago: 12.3 vs Toronto: 7.6
Total Bases (L5) +42.0% more
Chicago: 19.8 vs Toronto: 14.0
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +87.5% more
Toronto: 4.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.0 8
CHC Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 12.3 / 7.6 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 6.5 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 19.8 / 14.0 16.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.5 / 6.1 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
TOR
CHC
TOR
ML
58% 93-68
46% 74-87
51% 82-79
50% 80-80
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 90-71
47% 75-85-1
49% 79-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
51% 80-76-5
46% 72-83-6
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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