PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
38-39 | Road
1
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
30-47 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brennan Bernardino
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 3.72 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Brennan Bernardino | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.72 Ldr
ERA
3.86
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
41%
ROCKIES
59%
PIRATES
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
COL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
COL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockies
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rockies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Sim
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
PIT @ COL
8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026
PIT @ COL
1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026
PIT @ COL
3 - 4
May 14, 2026
COL @ PIT
2 - 7
May 13, 2026
COL @ PIT
10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.734
OPS
▲
.739
186
▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+67.2% more
Colorado: 2.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.3%
Colorado: 41.7%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
OPS (Season)
+0.5%
Colorado: 73.9%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Home Runs (Season)
+3.2% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
5.0
1
COL Score
6.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 10.1
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.0
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
17.8 / 17.0
10.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.2
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PIT
COL
PIT
ML
60%
97-64
52%
82-77
55%
88-73
52%
85-78
ATS
60%
97-64
54%
86-73
52%
83-78
50%
81-82
TTL
60%
93-62-6
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-78-6
50%
79-78-6
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