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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

36-39  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Jun 20 • 1:35 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

46-29  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Chase Petty
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Petty

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Max Schuemann

#30 | Left Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chase Petty None-None 4.41 -- 1.0 1
Max Schuemann None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.41 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
27%
📊
YANKEES
73%
REDS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

40.1%

Yankees Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CINCINNATI
6
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Reds (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 CIN @ NYY 4 - 1
Jun 20, 2026 CIN @ NYY 10 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 CIN @ NYY 0 - 5
Jun 25, 2025 NYY @ CIN 7 - 1
Jun 24, 2025 NYY @ CIN 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.699
OPS
▲ 1.041
213 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +119.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Home Runs (L5) +115.0% more
New York: 2.1 vs Cincinnati: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +76.0% more
New York: 17.4 vs Cincinnati: 9.9
Strikeouts (L5) +73.1% more
New York: 12.3 vs Cincinnati: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 5.0 10
NYY Score 6.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 3.0
Hits 9.3 / 5.5 8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 12.3 / 7.1 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 9.9 11.0 / 25.0
Walks 1.9 / 4.6 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CIN
NYY
CIN
ML
47% 76-85
55% 88-71
52% 85-77
49% 79-81
ATS
59% 95-66
54% 86-73
53% 86-76
50% 80-80
TTL
53% 81-73-7
53% 81-73-5
53% 82-72-7
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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