Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tarleton St @ Bowling Green TAR @ BGSU

TARLETON STATE

TARLETON STTAR

2-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

0-1  |  Home

13
Key Game
Charlie Mullen
KEY GAME

Charlie Mullen

#83 | Punter
@
Ryan Kingston
KEY GAME

Ryan Kingston

#30 | Punter
Player
Charlie Mullen None-None
Ryan Kingston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TARLETON ST
42%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
58%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (BGSU)
TARLETON ST 49% Book Odds: +105
BOWLING GREEN 56% Book Odds: -125
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.8
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.7 (Under)
Over 49.5 40%
Under 49.5 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Bowling Green)
Tarleton StTAR (+1.5) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (-1.5)
Bowling Green Falcons (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tarleton St Cover

41.0%

Bowling Green Cover

59.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BGSU -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

TAR By 1-6 points

15.2%

TAR By 7-13 points

12.8%

BGSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

BGSU By 7-13 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
20.3
TARLETON STATE
Book Implied: 24
23.5
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
20
TARLETON STATE
Book Implied: 24
24
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Bowling Green Loss
65% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim Bowling Green (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.8
C
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 TAR @ BGSU 20 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.0% more
Bowling Green: 1.0 vs Tarleton State: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.6% more
Bowling Green: 184.7 vs Tarleton State: 165.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 20.3 20
BGSU Score 23.5 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 16.2 21.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 184.7 / 165.5 104.0 / 258.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 320.5 / 333.7 366.0 / 464.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +105 / -125 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↓
37%TICKETS63%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 49.5 ↑
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
--
BGSU Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
--
BGSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
--
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
TAR
BGSU
TAR
ML
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
ATS
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
TTL
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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