Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nicholls @ Kansas St NICH @ KSU

NICHOLLS

NICHOLLSNICH

1-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

1-0  |  Home

71
Key Game
Wyatt Guidry
KEY GAME

Wyatt Guidry

#46 | Place kicker
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Wyatt Guidry None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NICHOLLS
17%
📊
KANSAS ST
83%
NICHOLLS 29% Book Odds: +240
KANSAS ST 96% Book Odds: -2400
Book Implied: 29.40% / 96%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.8
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +13.7 (Under)
Over 61.5 36%
Under 61.5 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.4
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
-5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.9 points (Kansas State)
NichollsNICH (+24.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (-5.5)
Kansas State Wildcats (-5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nicholls Cover

10.7%

Kansas St Cover

89.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KSU -17.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

NICH By 1-6 points

5.7%

NICH By 7-13 points

3.0%

KSU By 1-6 points

10.4%

KSU By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
15.2
NICHOLLS
Book Implied: 28
32.6
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
Simulated Score
15
NICHOLLS
Book Implied: 28
33
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kansas St Win
83% Win Prob
C
Sim Kansas St Win
96% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas St (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.4
C
Sim Kansas St (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.8
C
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 NICH @ KSU 3 - 71
Aug 31, 2019 NICH @ KSU 14 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +129.4% more
Kansas State: 232.5 vs Nicholls: 101.3
Total Yards (L5) +51.4% more
Kansas State: 383.7 vs Nicholls: 253.4
Turnovers (L5) +20.3% more
Nicholls: 1.3 vs Kansas State: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NICH Score 15.2 3
KSU Score 32.6 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 16.2 34.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 232.5 / 101.3 312.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.82 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 383.7 / 253.4 559.0 / 122.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1400 / -3200 → +240 / -2400 ↓
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +40.5 / -40.5 → +24.5 / -5.5 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 61.5 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
--
KSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
--
KSU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
--
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
NICH
KSU
NICH
ML
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 1-1
75% 3-1
50% 1-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 1-1
75% 3-1
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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