Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UAlbany @ Buffalo ALB @ BUFF

UALBANY

UALBANYALB

1-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Broadview Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

1-0  |  Home

21
Key Game
Gavin Myers
KEY GAME

Gavin Myers

#38 | Place kicker
@
Oliver Hautanen
KEY GAME

Oliver Hautanen

#31 | Place kicker
Player
Gavin Myers None-None
Oliver Hautanen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UALBANY
10%
📊
BUFFALO
90%
UALBANY 15% Book Odds: +571
BUFFALO 92% Book Odds: -1075
Book Implied: 14.90% / 91.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 (Over)
Over 47.5 66%
Under 47.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
-17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Buffalo)
UAlbanyALB (+17.5) 0 BuffaloBUFF (-17.5)
Buffalo Bulls (-17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAlbany Cover

4.7%

Buffalo Cover

95.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF -23.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

ALB By 1-6 points

2.7%

ALB By 7-13 points

1.2%

BUFF By 1-6 points

6.2%

BUFF By 7-13 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
15.5
UALBANY
Book Implied: 15
39
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 32.50
Simulated Score
18
UALBANY
Book Implied: 15
26
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 32.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Buffalo Win
90% Win Prob
A
Sim Buffalo Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Buffalo (-17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.5
B
Sim UAlbany (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
A
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 ALB @ BUFF 17 - 21
Sep 2, 2016 ALB @ BUFF 22 - 16
Sep 5, 2015 ALB @ BUFF 14 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +175.0% more
Buffalo: 2.3 vs UAlbany: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +43.8% more
Buffalo: 363.9 vs UAlbany: 253.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.1% more
Buffalo: 101.3 vs UAlbany: 71.3
First Downs (L5) +33.9% more
Buffalo: 19.0 vs UAlbany: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALB Score 15.5 17
BUFF Score 39.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 14.2 18.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 101.3 / 71.3 151.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.48 / 0.26
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 363.9 / 253.1 340.0 / 276.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6667 → +571 / -1075 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +17.5 / -17.5 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 47.5 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALB
--
BUFF Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALB
--
BUFF Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ALB
--
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
ALB
BUFF
ALB
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
TTL
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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