Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sacramento St @ E Michigan SAC @ EMU

SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

1-4  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 6:30 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
View Odds Details →

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

3-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Hamish Adams
KEY GAME

Hamish Adams

#37 | Punter
@
Daniel Hull
KEY GAME

Daniel Hull

#39 | Punter
Player
Hamish Adams None-None
Daniel Hull None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SACRAMENTO ST
43%
📊
E MICHIGAN
57%
▲ Edge: +16.40% (SAC)
SACRAMENTO ST 27% Book Odds: +277
E MICHIGAN 77% Book Odds: -336
Book Implied: 26.50% / 77.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.6
Projected
Book Total
53.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.4 (Under)
Over 53.0 45%
Under 53.0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.4
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Sacramento State)
Sacramento StSAC (+9.5) 0 E MichiganEMU (-9.5)
Sacramento State Hornets (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sacramento St Cover

59.6%

E Michigan Cover

40.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SAC +3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-6 points

15.1%

SAC By 7-13 points

12.6%

EMU By 1-6 points

17.0%

EMU By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.6
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 21.80
27
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 31.20
Simulated Score
21
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 21.80
32
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 31.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI E Michigan Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim E Michigan Win
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sacramento St (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.4
B
Sim E Michigan (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u53.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.6
C
Sim o53.0 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 SAC @ EMU 17 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Eastern Michigan: 143.9 vs Sacramento State: 128.3
Turnovers (L5) +57.1% more
Sacramento State: 2.7 vs Eastern Michigan: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 23.6 17
EMU Score 27.0 28
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +291 / -382 → +277 / -336 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 53
17%TICKETS83%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -7.2
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -7.2
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -4.1
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
SAC
EMU
SAC
ML
67% 4-2
75% 3-1
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 3-3
25% 1-3
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
TTL
67% 4-2
75% 3-1
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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