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SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

0-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 6:30 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
View Odds Details →

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

1-0  |  Home

28
AI Model Win Probability
SACRAMENTO ST
43%
📊
E MICHIGAN
57%
▲ Edge: +16.60% (SAC)
SACRAMENTO ST 26% Book Odds: +280
E MICHIGAN 78% Book Odds: -355
Book Implied: 26.30% / 78%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.6
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.9 (Under)
Over 52.5 45%
Under 52.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.4
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Sacramento State)
Sacramento StSAC (+8.5) 0 E MichiganEMU (-8.5)
Sacramento State Hornets (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sacramento St Cover

59.6%

E Michigan Cover

40.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SAC +3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-6 points

15.1%

SAC By 7-13 points

12.6%

EMU By 1-6 points

17.0%

EMU By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.6
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 22
27
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 30.50
Simulated Score
21
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 22
32
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 30.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI E Michigan Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim E Michigan Win
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sacramento St (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.4
D
Sim E Michigan (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.6
D
Sim o53.0 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 SAC @ EMU 17 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Eastern Michigan: 143.9 vs Sacramento State: 128.3
Turnovers (L5) +57.1% more
Sacramento State: 2.7 vs Eastern Michigan: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 23.6 17
EMU Score 27.0 28
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +291 / -382 → +280 / -355 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +8.5 / -8.5 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 52.5 ↓
17%TICKETS83%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -1.5
EMU Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -1.5
EMU Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
0-1-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -7.5
EMU
0-1-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -7.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
SAC
EMU
SAC
ML
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
ATS
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
TTL
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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