Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulane @ Duke TULN @ DUKE

TULANE

TULANETULN

0-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

1-0  |  Home

17
Key Game
William Hudlow
KEY GAME

William Hudlow

#34 | Punter
@
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
Player
William Hudlow None-None
Kade Reynoldson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULANE
28%
📊
DUKE
72%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (TULN)
TULANE 27% Book Odds: +268
DUKE 76% Book Odds: -323
Book Implied: 27.20% / 76.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
51.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 (Over)
Over 51.0 64%
Under 51.0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DUKE
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Duke)
TulaneTULN (+7.5) 0 DukeDUKE (-7.5)
Duke Blue Devils (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulane Cover

23.8%

Duke Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUKE -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

TULN By 1-6 points

10.7%

TULN By 7-13 points

7.3%

DUKE By 1-6 points

15.3%

DUKE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
TULANE
Book Implied: 21.80
33.5
DUKE
Book Implied: 29.20
Simulated Score
26
TULANE
Book Implied: 21.80
29
DUKE
Book Implied: 29.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Duke Win
72% Win Prob
C
Sim Duke Win
61% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Duke (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Tulane (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.0 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim o51.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 TULN @ DUKE 3 - 17
Sep 13, 2025 DUKE @ TULN 27 - 34
Sep 3, 2015 DUKE @ TULN 37 - 7
Sep 20, 2014 TULN @ DUKE 13 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.7% more
Tulane: 1.7 vs Duke: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.2% more
Tulane: 151.1 vs Duke: 126.7
Total Yards (L5) +12.8% more
Tulane: 408.5 vs Duke: 356.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TULN Score 23.5 3
DUKE Score 33.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 21.6 20.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 126.7 / 151.1 250.0 / 54.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 356.4 / 408.5 381.0 / 258.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +276 / -359 → +268 / -323 ↓
7%TICKETS93%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51 ↓
17%TICKETS83%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TULN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TULN
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TULN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -8.5
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
TULN
DUKE
TULN
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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