Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Morgan St @ Arizona St MORG @ ASU

MORGAN STATE

MORGAN STMORG

1-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 10:00 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

1-0  |  Home

70
Key Game
Shane Messenger
KEY GAME

Shane Messenger

#85 | Punter
@
Carston Kieffer
KEY GAME

Carston Kieffer

#26 | Place kicker
Player
Shane Messenger None-None
Carston Kieffer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MORGAN ST
4%
📊
ARIZONA ST
96%
MORGAN ST --
ARIZONA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
53.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 (Over)
Over 53.0 70%
Under 53.0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+34.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
+45
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Morgan State)
Morgan StMORG (+45) 0 Arizona StASU (-45)
Morgan State Bears (+45) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Morgan St Cover

99.2%

Arizona St Cover

0.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MORG +34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)

MORG By 1-6 points

0.5%

MORG By 7-13 points

0.2%

ASU By 1-6 points

1.6%

ASU By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
13.5
MORGAN STATE
Book Implied: 4
47.5
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 49
Simulated Score
14
MORGAN STATE
Book Implied: 4
34
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 49
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arizona St Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Arizona St Win
98% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Morgan St (+45) Loss
Proj Spread: +34.0
C
Sim Morgan St (+45) Loss
Proj Spread: +20.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o53.0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
B
Sim u53.0 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 MORG @ ASU 7 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +110.7% more
Arizona State: 185.6 vs Morgan State: 88.1
Total Yards (L5) +97.8% more
Arizona State: 374.7 vs Morgan State: 189.4
First Downs (L5) +57.6% more
Arizona State: 18.0 vs Morgan State: 11.4
Turnovers (L5) +33.5% more
Arizona State: 3.1 vs Morgan State: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 13.5 7
ASU Score 47.5 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 11.4 32.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 185.6 / 88.1 249.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.5 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 374.7 / 189.4 681.0 / 188.0
Turnovers 3.1 / 2.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +44.5 / -44.5 → +45 / -45 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 53 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
--
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG
--
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
--
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
MORG
ASU
MORG
ML
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-2
0% 0-4
0% 0-2
TTL
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Oregon State Offers MMR Boosters as San Diego State Battles Mump…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago
Kevin Jennings Sets SMU Touchdown Record as Mustangs Outlast Mis…
si 1 week, 4 days ago
Daniels and Kromah Propel Florida State to 34-7 Victory Over Cen…
ctinsider 1 week, 4 days ago
Harvard Edges Brown 14-10 in Ivy League Opener Behind Smith's Tw…
abcnews 1 week, 5 days ago
Tennessee Gears Up for SEC Opener Against No. 1 Texas; College G…
si 2 weeks, 4 days ago