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ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

AR-PINE BLUFFUAPB

1-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

1-0  |  Home

54
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

George Wiles-Koehler

#97 | Punter
@
Brunno Reus
KEY GAME

Brunno Reus

#40 | Place kicker
Player
George Wiles-Koehler None-None
Brunno Reus None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AR-PINE BLUFF
3%
📊
MISSOURI
97%
AR-PINE BLUFF --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
62.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 62.5 43%
Under 62.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+35.6
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Spread
+55.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.9 points (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
AR-Pine BluffUAPB (+55.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (-55.5)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (+55.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

AR-Pine Bluff Cover

99.5%

Missouri Cover

0.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UAPB +35.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAPB)

UAPB By 1-6 points

0.4%

UAPB By 7-13 points

0.1%

MIZ By 1-6 points

1.3%

MIZ By 7-13 points

3.8%

AI Model Projected Score
11.2
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Implied: 3.50
46.8
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 59
Simulated Score
13
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Implied: 3.50
40
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 59
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Missouri Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI AR-Pine Bluff (-55.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +35.6
A
Sim AR-Pine Bluff (+55) Win
Proj Spread: +27.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 UAPB @ MIZ 14 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +230.1% more
Missouri: 204.8 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 62.0
Total Yards (L5) +68.1% more
Missouri: 323.1 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 192.2
First Downs (L5) +54.7% more
Missouri: 18.8 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 12.2
Turnovers (L5) +46.0% more
Missouri: 1.4 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 11.2 14
MIZ Score 46.8 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 12.2 33.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 204.8 / 62.0 205.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.6 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 323.1 / 192.2 562.0 / 198.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +54.5 / -54.5 → +55.5 / -55.5 ↑
70%TICKETS30%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 60.5 → 62.5 ↑
45%TICKETS55%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
--
MIZ Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 40.0 ATS +/-: -15.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
--
MIZ
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 40.0 ATS +/-: -15.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
--
MIZ
1-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
UAPB
MIZ
UAPB
ML
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
ATS
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
TTL
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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