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ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

AR-PINE BLUFFUAPB

1-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

1-0  |  Home

54
Key Game
Landon Holcomb
KEY GAME

Landon Holcomb

#9 | Quarterback
@
Nick Evers
KEY GAME

Nick Evers

#10 | Quarterback
Player
Landon Holcomb None-None
Nick Evers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AR-PINE BLUFF
3%
📊
MISSOURI
97%
AR-PINE BLUFF --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 61.5 43%
Under 61.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+35.6
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Spread
+55
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.4 points (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
AR-Pine BluffUAPB (+55) 0 MissouriMIZ (-55)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (+55) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

AR-Pine Bluff Cover

99.5%

Missouri Cover

0.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UAPB +35.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAPB)

UAPB By 1-6 points

0.4%

UAPB By 7-13 points

0.1%

MIZ By 1-6 points

1.3%

MIZ By 7-13 points

3.8%

AI Model Projected Score
11.2
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Implied: 3.20
46.8
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 58.20
Simulated Score
13
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Implied: 3.20
40
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 58.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Missouri Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI AR-Pine Bluff (+55) Win
Proj Spread: +35.6
A
Sim AR-Pine Bluff (+55) Win
Proj Spread: +27.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 UAPB @ MIZ 14 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +230.1% more
Missouri: 204.8 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 62.0
Total Yards (L5) +68.1% more
Missouri: 323.1 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 192.2
First Downs (L5) +54.7% more
Missouri: 18.8 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 12.2
Turnovers (L5) +46.0% more
Missouri: 1.4 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 11.2 14
MIZ Score 46.8 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 12.2 33.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 204.8 / 62.0 205.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.6 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 323.1 / 192.2 562.0 / 198.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +55 / -55 → +55 / -55
70%TICKETS30%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 61.5 → 61.5
45%TICKETS55%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
--
MIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
--
MIZ Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
--
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
UAPB
MIZ
UAPB
ML
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
TTL
20% 1-4
0% 0-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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