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CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

0-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 10:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

1-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
@
Charles Steinkamp
KEY GAME

Charles Steinkamp

#35 | Punter
Player
Declan Duley None-None
Charles Steinkamp None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
32%
📊
NEW MEXICO
68%
▲ Edge: +10.30% (CMU)
C MICHIGAN 22% Book Odds: +360
NEW MEXICO 82% Book Odds: -456
Book Implied: 21.70% / 82%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 60%
Under 46.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Central Michigan)
C MichiganCMU (+10.5) 0 New MexicoUNM (-10.5)
Central Michigan Chippewas (+10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Michigan Cover

71.6%

New Mexico Cover

28.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CMU +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

CMU By 1-6 points

12.2%

CMU By 7-13 points

8.8%

UNM By 1-6 points

16.1%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 18
29.5
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
21
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 18
31
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI New Mexico Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico Win
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI C Michigan (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim C Michigan (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 CMU @ UNM 7 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.2% more
New Mexico: 148.4 vs Central Michigan: 119.5
First Downs (L5) +8.9% more
New Mexico: 17.2 vs Central Michigan: 15.8
Turnovers (L5) +42.5% more
Central Michigan: 2.1 vs New Mexico: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 21.5 7
UNM Score 29.5 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 15.8 28.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 148.4 / 119.5 205.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 296.3 / 308.1 364.0 / 149.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +363 / -503 → +360 / -456 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12 / -12 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48 → 46.5 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
CMU
UNM
CMU
ML
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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