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UNLV

UNLVUNLV

1-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 10:00 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

0-2  |  Home

6
Key Game
Matt Choules
KEY GAME

Matt Choules

#26 | Punter
@
Gehrig Heil
KEY GAME

Gehrig Heil

#47 | Punter
Player
Matt Choules None-None
Gehrig Heil None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
47%
📊
HAWAI'I
53%
▲ Edge: +10% (HAW)
UNLV 60% Book Odds: -150
HAWAI'I 43% Book Odds: +132
Book Implied: 60% / 43.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 48%
Under 55.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Hawai'i)
UNLVUNLV (-3) 0 Hawai'iHAW (+3)
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UNLV Cover

46.0%

Hawai'i Cover

54.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HAW -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

UNLV By 1-6 points

16.0%

UNLV By 7-13 points

14.3%

HAW By 1-6 points

16.8%

HAW By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
UNLV
Book Implied: 29.20
28.2
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 26.20
Simulated Score
31
UNLV
Book Implied: 29.20
28
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 26.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawai'i Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim UNLV Win
62% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawai'i (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
C
Sim Hawai'i (-3) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 UNLV @ HAW 21 - 6
Nov 21, 2025 HAW @ UNLV 10 - 38
Nov 9, 2024 UNLV @ HAW 29 - 27
Sep 30, 2023 HAW @ UNLV 20 - 44
Nov 19, 2022 UNLV @ HAW 25 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +54.2% more
UNLV: 1.5 vs Hawai'i: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.0% more
UNLV: 167.2 vs Hawai'i: 103.7
First Downs (L5) +13.5% more
UNLV: 22.2 vs Hawai'i: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 26.8 21
HAW Score 28.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 22.2 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 103.7 / 167.2 118.0 / 248.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 388.4 / 397.9 294.0 / 364.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -153 / +130 → -150 / +132
87%TICKETS13%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -3 / +3
72%TICKETS28%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58 → 55.5 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
UNLV
HAW
UNLV
ML
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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