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MERRIMACK

MERRIMACKMRMK

0-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Delaware Stadium
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

1-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Mike Ryan

#83 | Place kicker
@
Josh Cupitt
KEY GAME

Josh Cupitt

#39 | Punter
Player
Mike Ryan None-None
Josh Cupitt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MERRIMACK
8%
📊
DELAWARE
92%
MERRIMACK --
DELAWARE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.5
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 56.5 53%
Under 56.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+26.5
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
+31.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Merrimack)
MerrimackMRMK (+31.5) 0 DelawareDEL (-31.5)
Merrimack Warriors (+31.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Merrimack Cover

97.1%

Delaware Cover

2.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MRMK +26.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

MRMK By 1-6 points

1.8%

MRMK By 7-13 points

0.7%

DEL By 1-6 points

4.5%

DEL By 7-13 points

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
15.5
MERRIMACK
Book Implied: 12.50
42
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 44
Simulated Score
14
MERRIMACK
Book Implied: 12.50
42
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 44
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Delaware Win
92% Win Prob
C
Sim Delaware Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Merrimack (+31.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +26.5
C
Sim Merrimack (+31.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.5
C
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 MRMK @ DEL 7 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +84.0% more
Delaware: 1.1 vs Merrimack: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +40.6% more
Delaware: 395.1 vs Merrimack: 281.0
First Downs (L5) +31.8% more
Delaware: 19.8 vs Merrimack: 15.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.0% more
Delaware: 137.9 vs Merrimack: 111.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 15.5 7
DEL Score 42.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 15.0 27.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 137.9 / 111.2 112.0 / 48.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 395.1 / 281.0 547.0 / 244.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
5%TICKETS95%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +28.5 / -28.5 → +31.5 / -31.5 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56 → 56.5 ↑
24%TICKETS76%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
--
DEL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
--
DEL Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
--
DEL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
MRMK
DEL
MRMK
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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