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FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

0-1  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

1-0  |  Home

19
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Felix Visser

#43 | Punter
@
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
Player
Felix Visser None-None
Luke Goater None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
19%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
81%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (FIU)
FIU 18% Book Odds: +463
SOUTH FLORIDA 86% Book Odds: -618
Book Implied: 17.80% / 86.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.5
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 (Over)
Over 52.5 69%
Under 52.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.5
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
-14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (South Florida)
FIUFIU (+14.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (-14.5)
South Florida Bulls (-14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

13.4%

South Florida Cover

86.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -15.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

FIU By 1-6 points

6.9%

FIU By 7-13 points

3.9%

USF By 1-6 points

11.8%

USF By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
23
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 19
38.5
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 33.50
Simulated Score
25
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 19
41
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 33.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Florida Win
81% Win Prob
C
Sim South Florida Win
94% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Florida (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.5
D
Sim South Florida (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.5
B
Sim o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 FIU @ USF 9 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.1% more
South Florida: 2.3 vs Florida International: 1.7
Total Yards (L5) +20.0% more
South Florida: 470.9 vs Florida International: 392.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
South Florida: 0.5 vs Florida International: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +8.6% more
South Florida: 23.8 vs Florida International: 21.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 23.0 9
USF Score 38.5 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 21.9 14.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 177.3 / 172.4 108.0 / 80.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 470.9 / 392.4 208.0 / 381.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +385 / -542 → +463 / -618 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5 → +14.5 / -14.5 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 52.5 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
USF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
FIU
USF
FIU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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