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UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

0-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:30 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

1-0  |  Home

62
Key Game
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Makenzie Ryan None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
7%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
93%
UL MONROE --
MISSISSIPPI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.4
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 (Over)
Over 54.5 61%
Under 54.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+27.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
+28
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UL Monroe)
UL MonroeULM (+28) 0 Mississippi StMSST (-28)
UL Monroe Warhawks (+28) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

97.3%

Mississippi St Cover

2.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ULM +27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

ULM By 1-6 points

1.6%

ULM By 7-13 points

0.6%

MSST By 1-6 points

4.2%

MSST By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 13.20
43.2
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 41.20
Simulated Score
16
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 13.20
38
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 41.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mississippi St Win
93% Win Prob
B
Sim Mississippi St Win
99% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UL Monroe (+28) Loss
Proj Spread: +27.0
D
Sim UL Monroe (+28) Loss
Proj Spread: +22.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.4
C
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 ULM @ MSST 13 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Mississippi State: 0.5 vs UL Monroe: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +13.5% more
Mississippi State: 22.8 vs UL Monroe: 20.1
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Mississippi State: 389.8 vs UL Monroe: 353.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Mississippi State: 169.3 vs UL Monroe: 153.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 16.2 13
MSST Score 43.2 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 20.1 35.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 169.3 / 153.5 345.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.19
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 389.8 / 353.3 762.0 / 278.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +28.5 / -28.5 → +28 / -28 ↓
96%TICKETS4%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 54.5 ↓
12%TICKETS88%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -17.1 ATS +/-: -5.7
MSST Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -17.1 ATS +/-: -5.7
MSST Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.2
MSST
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
ULM
MSST
ULM
ML
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
ATS
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
TTL
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
0% 0-7
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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