Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San José St @ E Michigan SJSU @ EMU

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

1-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:30 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
View Odds Details →

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

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21
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Daniel Hull
KEY GAME

Daniel Hull

#39 | Punter
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Daniel Hull None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
37%
📊
E MICHIGAN
63%
▲ Edge: +5.50% (EMU)
SAN JOSÉ ST 45% Book Odds: +123
E MICHIGAN 58% Book Odds: -138
Book Implied: 44.80% / 58%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.0 (Under)
Over 56.0 43%
Under 56.0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Eastern Michigan)
San José StSJSU (+2.5) 0 E MichiganEMU (-2.5)
Eastern Michigan Eagles (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

33.4%

E Michigan Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around EMU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

SJSU By 1-6 points

13.5%

SJSU By 7-13 points

10.4%

EMU By 1-6 points

16.7%

EMU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
29.5
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 29.20
Simulated Score
25
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
29
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 29.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI E Michigan Loss
63% Win Prob
D
Sim E Michigan Loss
65% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI E Michigan (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim E Michigan (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 SJSU @ EMU 27 - 21
Dec 20, 2022 EMU @ SJSU 41 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +25.5% more
Eastern Michigan: 401.9 vs San José State: 320.3
First Downs (L5) +16.3% more
Eastern Michigan: 20.8 vs San José State: 17.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Eastern Michigan: 140.6 vs San José State: 123.0
Turnovers (L5) +26.2% more
San José State: 3.3 vs Eastern Michigan: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 23.5 27
EMU Score 29.5 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 17.9 13.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 140.6 / 123.0 107.0 / 137.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.19 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 401.9 / 320.3 281.0 / 453.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 3.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -178 → +123 / -138 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 56 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
EMU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
EMU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
SJSU
EMU
SJSU
ML
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
33% 2-4
60% 3-2
TTL
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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