Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Maine @ App State ME @ APP

MAINE

MAINEME

1-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

1-0  |  Home

55
Key Game
Anthony Pecorella
KEY GAME

Anthony Pecorella

#82 | Punter
@
Andrew Cummings
KEY GAME

Andrew Cummings

#36 | Place kicker
Player
Anthony Pecorella None-None
Andrew Cummings None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MAINE
30%
📊
APP STATE
70%
▲ Edge: +19.30% (ME)
MAINE 11% Book Odds: +850
APP STATE 94% Book Odds: -1449
Book Implied: 10.50% / 93.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.6
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.9 (Under)
Over 53.5 35%
Under 53.5 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.4
MAINE
Book Spread
+20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.1 points (Maine)
MaineME (+20.5) 0 App StateAPP (-20.5)
Maine Black Bears (+20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maine Cover

74.9%

App State Cover

25.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ME +9.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ME)

ME By 1-6 points

11.2%

ME By 7-13 points

7.7%

APP By 1-6 points

15.5%

APP By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
18.6
MAINE
Book Implied: 16.50
28
APP STATE
Book Implied: 37
Simulated Score
19
MAINE
Book Implied: 16.50
28
APP STATE
Book Implied: 37
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI App State Win
70% Win Prob
D
Sim App State Win
81% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maine (+20.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.4
B
Sim Maine (+20.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.6
B
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 ME @ APP 3 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +21.9% more
App State: 353.1 vs Maine: 289.5
First Downs (L5) +18.9% more
App State: 19.9 vs Maine: 16.8
Turnovers (L5) +11.0% more
App State: 1.9 vs Maine: 1.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
App State: 0.3 vs Maine: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ME Score 18.6 3
APP Score 28.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 16.8 34.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 122.4 / 127.1 299.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.29 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 353.1 / 289.5 647.0 / 250.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +675 / -1050 → +850 / -1449 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +18.5 / -18.5 → +20.5 / -20.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 53.5
67%TICKETS33%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
--
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
--
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
--
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
ME
APP
ME
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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