Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sam Houston @ Troy SHSU @ TROY

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

0-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROYTROY

1-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Cal Joseph
KEY GAME

Cal Joseph

#31 | Punter
@
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
Player
Cal Joseph None-None
Evan Crenshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
17%
📊
TROY
83%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (SHSU)
SAM HOUSTON 15% Book Odds: +572
TROY 89% Book Odds: -805
Book Implied: 14.90% / 89%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.6
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.9 (Under)
Over 53.5 48%
Under 53.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+17.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
+17
Book Line
Sam HoustonSHSU (+17) 0 TroyTROY (-17)
Line aligns with book spread (+17)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

88.8%

Troy Cover

11.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SHSU +17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-6 points

5.9%

SHSU By 7-13 points

3.2%

TROY By 1-6 points

10.7%

TROY By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17.8
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 18.20
34.8
TROY
Book Implied: 35.20
Simulated Score
17
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 18.20
27
TROY
Book Implied: 35.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Troy Win
83% Win Prob
C
Sim Troy Win
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sam Houston (+17) Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
D
Sim Sam Houston (+17) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.6
D
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 SHSU @ TROY 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.7% more
Sam Houston: 146.3 vs Troy: 63.4
Turnovers (L5) +24.3% more
Sam Houston: 1.9 vs Troy: 1.4
Total Yards (L5) +22.3% more
Sam Houston: 341.6 vs Troy: 265.4
First Downs (L5) +13.7% more
Sam Houston: 18.1 vs Troy: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 17.8 21
TROY Score 34.8 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 18.1 18.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 63.4 / 146.3 177.0 / 38.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.4 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 265.4 / 341.6 342.0 / 373.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +537 / -846 → +572 / -805
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +17 / -17 → +17 / -17
69%TICKETS31%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 53.5 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
SHSU
TROY
SHSU
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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