Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Murray St @ MTSU MUR @ MTSU

MURRAY STATE

MURRAY STMUR

0-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

1-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Spencer Ashby
KEY GAME

Spencer Ashby

#19 | Punter
@
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
Player
Spencer Ashby None-None
Ashton Logan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MURRAY ST
11%
📊
MTSU
89%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (MUR)
MURRAY ST 10% Book Odds: +862
MTSU 95% Book Odds: -1889
Book Implied: 10.40% / 95%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.1
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.4 (Under)
Over 55.5 39%
Under 55.5 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+22.3
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
+22.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Murray State)
Murray StMUR (+22.5) 0 MTSUMTSU (-22.5)
Murray State Racers (+22.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Murray St Cover

94.4%

MTSU Cover

5.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MUR +22.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

MUR By 1-6 points

3.2%

MUR By 7-13 points

1.5%

MTSU By 1-6 points

7.0%

MTSU By 7-13 points

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
13.9
MURRAY STATE
Book Implied: 16.50
36.2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 39
Simulated Score
14
MURRAY STATE
Book Implied: 16.50
36
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 39
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI MTSU Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim MTSU Win
99% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Murray St (+22.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +22.3
D
Sim Murray St (+22.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +22.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.1
C
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 MUR @ MTSU 14 - 38
Sep 16, 2023 MUR @ MTSU 14 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +83.9% more
Middle Tennessee: 441.3 vs Murray State: 240.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.3% more
Middle Tennessee: 153.5 vs Murray State: 101.4
First Downs (L5) +36.8% more
Middle Tennessee: 20.8 vs Murray State: 15.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 0.4 vs Murray State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 13.9 14
MTSU Score 36.2 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 15.2 21.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 153.5 / 101.4 196.0 / 145.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 441.3 / 240.0 396.0 / 290.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 2.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +950 / -1650 → +862 / -1889 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +22.5 / -22.5 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 55.5 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
--
MTSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
--
MTSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
--
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
MUR
MTSU
MUR
ML
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
ATS
60% 3-2
0% 0-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-3
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Oklahoma State's Blowout Win Reshapes Depth Chart: Three Up, Thr…
si 2 weeks, 2 days ago
Emmy-Winning Anchor Walt Maciborski: From Olympic Coverage to Au…
cbsaustin 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Inside the Ironman 70.3 Ruidoso: Racers of all backgrounds have …
yahoo 2 months, 3 weeks ago
Calais Campbell’s brother charged with the murder of their mothe…
yardbarker 3 months, 1 week ago
MTSU’s Blue Raider Blitz Returns in July
williamsonsource 3 months, 1 week ago