Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Liberty @ James Madison LIB @ JMU

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

0-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:00 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

1-0  |  Home

20
Key Game
Sam Crossan
KEY GAME

Sam Crossan

#49 | Place kicker
@
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
Player
Sam Crossan None-None
Patrick Rea None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
13%
📊
JAMES MADISON
87%
▲ Edge: +18.30% (JMU)
LIBERTY 35% Book Odds: +185
JAMES MADISON 69% Book Odds: -219
Book Implied: 35.10% / 68.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
51.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 (Over)
Over 51.0 66%
Under 51.0 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
-5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.5 points (James Madison)
LibertyLIB (+5.5) 0 James MadisonJMU (-5.5)
James Madison Dukes (-5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

7.7%

James Madison Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JMU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

LIB By 1-6 points

4.2%

LIB By 7-13 points

2.1%

JMU By 1-6 points

8.6%

JMU By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
19
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 22.80
39
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
20
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 22.80
35
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI James Madison Win
87% Win Prob
C
Sim James Madison Win
93% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI James Madison (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
B
Sim James Madison (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.0 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim o51.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 LIB @ JMU 13 - 20
Sep 20, 2025 JMU @ LIB 31 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +8.3% more
James Madison: 472.6 vs Liberty: 436.2
Turnovers (L5) +54.3% more
Liberty: 2.0 vs James Madison: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 19.0 13
JMU Score 39.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 22.9 15.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 241.7 / 241.5 173.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 472.6 / 436.2 291.0 / 321.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 2.0 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +203 / -250 → +185 / -219 ↓
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 51 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
LIB
JMU
LIB
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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