Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Kentucky @ Jax State EKU @ JXST

EASTERN KENTUCKY

E KENTUCKYEKU

0-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

1-1  |  Home

49
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Jettson Brown

#27 | Punter
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Jettson Brown None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E KENTUCKY
6%
📊
JAX STATE
94%
E KENTUCKY 11% Book Odds: +830
JAX STATE 95% Book Odds: -1775
Book Implied: 10.80% / 94.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 52.5 54%
Under 52.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.5
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
-21.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Jacksonville State)
E KentuckyEKU (+21.5) 0 Jax StateJXST (-21.5)
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-21.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Kentucky Cover

2.5%

Jax State Cover

97.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JXST -27.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

EKU By 1-6 points

1.5%

EKU By 7-13 points

0.6%

JXST By 1-6 points

4.0%

JXST By 7-13 points

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
13
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 15.50
40.5
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 37
Simulated Score
13
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 15.50
40
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 37
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State Win
94% Win Prob
B
Sim Jax State Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jax State (-21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.5
C
Sim Jax State (-21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.5
D
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 EKU @ JXST 7 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +140.7% more
Jacksonville State: 197.7 vs Eastern Kentucky: 82.1
Total Yards (L5) +79.8% more
Jacksonville State: 364.8 vs Eastern Kentucky: 202.9
First Downs (L5) +51.0% more
Jacksonville State: 19.1 vs Eastern Kentucky: 12.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Jacksonville State: 0.4 vs Eastern Kentucky: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EKU Score 13.0 7
JXST Score 40.5 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 12.7 26.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 197.7 / 82.1 174.0 / 195.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.82 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 364.8 / 202.9 526.0 / 285.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1200 / -2400 → +830 / -1775 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +21.5 / -21.5 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 52.5 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU
--
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
--
JXST Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
--
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
EKU
JXST
EKU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
100% 6-0
100% 1-0
ATS
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
50% 3-3
100% 1-0
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
67% 4-2
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
South Carolina's Season Spirals After Alabama Blowout, Leaving F…
islandpacket 1 week, 4 days ago
Gamecocks and Tigers Set for Historic First Meeting in Annapolis
si 1 month ago
South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers Aims to Bounce Back and Make N…
wtop 1 month, 1 week ago
Bison Stampede into FBS: North Dakota State's Historic Ascent to…
yahoo 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Gamecocks Tight End Unit: Experience and Upside Define Position …
headtopics 1 month, 3 weeks ago