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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

4-4  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 3:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

6-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
22%
📊
USC
78%
SAN JOSÉ ST --
USC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.1
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 61.5 51%
Under 61.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+13.9
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
+38.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.6 points (San José State)
San José StSJSU (+38.5) 0 USCUSC (-38.5)
San José State Spartans (+38.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

84.0%

USC Cover

16.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SJSU +13.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

SJSU By 1-6 points

7.9%

SJSU By 7-13 points

4.7%

USC By 1-6 points

12.9%

USC By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 11.50
38
USC
Book Implied: 50
Simulated Score
11
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 11.50
49
USC
Book Implied: 50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI USC Win
78% Win Prob
A
Sim USC Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI San José St (+38.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.9
A
Sim San José St (+38.5) Win
Proj Spread: +38.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o61.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.1
D
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 SJSU @ USC 26 - 42
Aug 26, 2023 SJSU @ USC 28 - 56
Sep 4, 2021 SJSU @ USC 7 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
USC: 0.5 vs San José State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +12.0% more
USC: 22.2 vs San José State: 19.8
Total Yards (L5) +8.9% more
USC: 399.4 vs San José State: 366.9
Turnovers (L5) +64.5% more
San José State: 2.5 vs USC: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 24.1 26
USC Score 38.0 42
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +38 / -38 → +38.5 / -38.5 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 61.5 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
USC Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: -7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
USC
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: -7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5% Total +/-: -8.3
USC
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
SJSU
USC
SJSU
ML
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
ATS
62% 5-3
12% 1-7
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
TTL
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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