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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

0-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 3:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

1-0  |  Home

42
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
22%
📊
USC
78%
▲ Edge: +20% (SJSU)
SAN JOSÉ ST 2% Book Odds: +5000
USC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.1
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 61.5 51%
Under 61.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+13.9
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
+37.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.6 points (San José State)
San José StSJSU (+37.5) 0 USCUSC (-37.5)
San José State Spartans (+37.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

84.0%

USC Cover

16.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SJSU +13.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

SJSU By 1-6 points

7.9%

SJSU By 7-13 points

4.7%

USC By 1-6 points

12.9%

USC By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 12
38
USC
Book Implied: 49.50
Simulated Score
11
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 12
49
USC
Book Implied: 49.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI USC Win
78% Win Prob
C
Sim USC Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI San José St (-37.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.9
A
Sim San José St (+38.5) Win
Proj Spread: +38.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o61.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.1
D
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 SJSU @ USC 26 - 42
Aug 26, 2023 SJSU @ USC 28 - 56
Sep 4, 2021 SJSU @ USC 7 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
USC: 0.5 vs San José State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +12.0% more
USC: 22.2 vs San José State: 19.8
Total Yards (L5) +8.9% more
USC: 399.4 vs San José State: 366.9
Turnovers (L5) +64.5% more
San José State: 2.5 vs USC: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 24.1 26
USC Score 38.0 42
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2800 / -9000 → +5000 / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +38 / -38 → +37.5 / -37.5 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 61.5 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -16.0 ATS +/-: +21.5
USC Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -21.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: -16.0 ATS +/-: +21.5
USC
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -21.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +7.5
USC
1-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +7.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
SJSU
USC
SJSU
ML
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
ATS
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
TTL
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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