Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt APSU @ VAN

AUSTIN PEAY

AUSTIN PEAYAPSU

1-1  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

1-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Logan Leftrick
KEY GAME

Logan Leftrick

#49 | Punter
@
Tyler Ebel
KEY GAME

Tyler Ebel

#37 | Punter
Player
Logan Leftrick None-None
Tyler Ebel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUSTIN PEAY
5%
📊
VANDERBILT
95%
AUSTIN PEAY 6% Book Odds: +1700
VANDERBILT 98% Book Odds: -4500
Book Implied: 5.60% / 97.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.2
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 56.5 50%
Under 56.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+29.4
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
+35.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Austin Peay)
Austin PeayAPSU (+35.5) 0 VanderbiltVAN (-35.5)
Austin Peay Governors (+35.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Austin Peay Cover

98.2%

Vanderbilt Cover

1.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around APSU +29.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)

APSU By 1-6 points

1.1%

APSU By 7-13 points

0.4%

VAN By 1-6 points

3.1%

VAN By 7-13 points

7.7%

AI Model Projected Score
13.4
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Implied: 10.50
42.8
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 46
Simulated Score
13
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Implied: 10.50
43
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 46
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Vanderbilt Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Vanderbilt Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Austin Peay (+35.5) Win
Proj Spread: +29.4
C
Sim Austin Peay (+35.5) Win
Proj Spread: +30.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.2
D
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 APSU @ VAN 9 - 28
Sep 19, 2015 APSU @ VAN 7 - 47
Sep 7, 2013 APSU @ VAN 3 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +124.3% more
Vanderbilt: 185.6 vs Austin Peay: 82.7
Total Yards (L5) +113.2% more
Vanderbilt: 522.8 vs Austin Peay: 245.2
First Downs (L5) +87.6% more
Vanderbilt: 26.1 vs Austin Peay: 13.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +23.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.5 vs Austin Peay: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APSU Score 13.4 9
VAN Score 42.8 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.1 / 13.9 20.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 185.6 / 82.7 187.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 522.8 / 245.2 396.0 / 178.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2500 / -9000 → +1700 / -4500 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30.5 / -30.5 → +35.5 / -35.5 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: 60.5 → 56.5 ↓
7%TICKETS93%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
--
VAN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
--
VAN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
--
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
APSU
VAN
APSU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
TTL
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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