Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Towson @ Navy TOW @ NAVY

TOWSON

TOWSONTOW

0-2  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

1-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Owen Scheihing
KEY GAME

Owen Scheihing

#34 | Place kicker
@
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
Player
Owen Scheihing None-None
Jacob Carlson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOWSON
23%
📊
NAVY
77%
▲ Edge: +20.70% (TOW)
TOWSON 2% Book Odds: +5000
NAVY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.8
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.7 (Under)
Over 50.5 42%
Under 50.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+13.6
TOWSON
Book Spread
+31.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.9 points (Towson)
TowsonTOW (+31.5) 0 NavyNAVY (-31.5)
Towson Tigers (+31.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Towson Cover

83.4%

Navy Cover

16.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TOW +13.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOW)

TOW By 1-6 points

8.1%

TOW By 7-13 points

4.9%

NAVY By 1-6 points

13.1%

NAVY By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
16.6
TOWSON
Book Implied: 9.50
30.2
NAVY
Book Implied: 41
Simulated Score
17
TOWSON
Book Implied: 9.50
30
NAVY
Book Implied: 41
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Navy Win
77% Win Prob
C
Sim Navy Win
90% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Towson (+31.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.6
B
Sim Towson (+31.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.8
C
Sim u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 TOW @ NAVY 15 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +130.6% more
Navy: 238.9 vs Towson: 103.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +26.0% more
Navy: 0.5 vs Towson: 0.2
First Downs (L5) +17.2% more
Navy: 18.9 vs Towson: 16.1
Total Yards (L5) +12.3% more
Navy: 344.0 vs Towson: 306.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOW Score 16.6 15
NAVY Score 30.2 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 16.1 30.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 238.9 / 103.6 506.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.58 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards 344.0 / 306.3 527.0 / 246.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2800 / -10000 → +5000 / --
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30.5 / -30.5 → +31.5 / -31.5 ↑
97%TICKETS3%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 50.5 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOW
--
NAVY Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOW
--
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TOW
--
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
TOW
NAVY
TOW
ML
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
TTL
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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