Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Portland St @ San Diego St PRST @ SDSU

PORTLAND STATE

PORTLAND STPRST

0-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

1-0  |  Home

53
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Emiliano Rodriguez

#88 | Punter
@
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
Player
Emiliano Rodriguez None-None
Tashi Dorje None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PORTLAND ST
5%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
95%
PORTLAND ST --
SAN DIEGO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.5
Projected
Book Total
62.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 62.5 44%
Under 62.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+30.5
PORTLAND STATE
Book Spread
+40.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Portland State)
Portland StPRST (+40.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (-40.5)
Portland State Vikings (+40.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Portland St Cover

98.5%

San Diego St Cover

1.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PRST +30.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRST)

PRST By 1-6 points

0.9%

PRST By 7-13 points

0.3%

SDSU By 1-6 points

2.7%

SDSU By 7-13 points

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
14
PORTLAND STATE
Book Implied: 11
44.5
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 51.50
Simulated Score
13
PORTLAND STATE
Book Implied: 11
33
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 51.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI San Diego St Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim San Diego St Win
98% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Portland St (+40.5) Win
Proj Spread: +30.5
C
Sim Portland St (+40.5) Win
Proj Spread: +20.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.5
D
Sim u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 PRST @ SDSU 20 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +210.9% more
San Diego State: 238.6 vs Portland State: 76.7
Turnovers (L5) +90.0% more
San Diego State: 1.9 vs Portland State: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +68.8% more
San Diego State: 389.4 vs Portland State: 230.7
First Downs (L5) +48.6% more
San Diego State: 19.6 vs Portland State: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PRST Score 14.0 20
SDSU Score 44.5 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 13.2 22.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 238.6 / 76.7 237.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.37
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 389.4 / 230.7 394.0 / 375.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.0 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +40.5 / -40.5 → +40.5 / -40.5
98%TICKETS2%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: 62 → 62.5 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRST
--
SDSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRST
--
SDSU Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PRST
--
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
PRST
SDSU
PRST
ML
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
ATS
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
TTL
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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