Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ UNLV MEM @ UNLV

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

4-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 10:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

3-2  |  Home

21
Key Game
Philippe Laforge
KEY GAME

Philippe Laforge

#80 | Place kicker
@
Matt Choules
KEY GAME

Matt Choules

#26 | Punter
Player
Philippe Laforge None-None
Matt Choules None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
37%
📊
UNLV
63%
MEMPHIS 39% Book Odds: +157
UNLV 64% Book Odds: -179
Book Implied: 38.90% / 64.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.3
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 (Over)
Over 56.0 60%
Under 56.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
UNLV
Book Spread
-4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (UNLV)
MemphisMEM (+4) 0 UNLVUNLV (-4)
UNLV Rebels (-4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

33.7%

UNLV Cover

66.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNLV -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

MEM By 1-6 points

13.6%

MEM By 7-13 points

10.5%

UNLV By 1-6 points

16.7%

UNLV By 7-13 points

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
27.2
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 26
33.1
UNLV
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
25
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 26
31
UNLV
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UNLV Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim UNLV Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UNLV (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.9
C
Sim UNLV (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.0 Loss
Proj Total: 60.3
B
Sim o56.0 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 MEM @ UNLV 27 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +76.0% more
UNLV: 1.3 vs Memphis: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.6% more
UNLV: 202.2 vs Memphis: 149.1
Total Yards (L5) +19.1% more
UNLV: 456.3 vs Memphis: 383.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
UNLV: 0.5 vs Memphis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 27.2 27
UNLV Score 33.1 21
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +178 / -215 → +157 / -179 ↓
7%TICKETS93%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +4 / -4 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 56 ↓
14%TICKETS86%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
MEM
UNLV
MEM
ML
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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