Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ UNLV MEM @ UNLV

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

1-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 10:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

0-1  |  Home

21
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
37%
📊
UNLV
63%
MEMPHIS 39% Book Odds: +160
UNLV 66% Book Odds: -192
Book Implied: 38.50% / 65.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.3
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 (Over)
Over 55.5 60%
Under 55.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
UNLV
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (UNLV)
MemphisMEM (+4.5) 0 UNLVUNLV (-4.5)
UNLV Rebels (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

33.7%

UNLV Cover

66.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNLV -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

MEM By 1-6 points

13.6%

MEM By 7-13 points

10.5%

UNLV By 1-6 points

16.7%

UNLV By 7-13 points

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
27.2
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 25.50
33.1
UNLV
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
25
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 25.50
31
UNLV
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UNLV Loss
63% Win Prob
D
Sim UNLV Loss
72% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UNLV (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.9
D
Sim UNLV (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.3
D
Sim o56.0 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 MEM @ UNLV 27 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +76.0% more
UNLV: 1.3 vs Memphis: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.6% more
UNLV: 202.2 vs Memphis: 149.1
Total Yards (L5) +19.1% more
UNLV: 456.3 vs Memphis: 383.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
UNLV: 0.5 vs Memphis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 27.2 27
UNLV Score 33.1 21
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +178 / -215 → +160 / -192 ↓
7%TICKETS93%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 55.5 ↓
14%TICKETS86%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +10.5
UNLV
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -10.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
1-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +10.5
UNLV
0-1-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -10.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
0-1-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -7.5
UNLV
0-1-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -7.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
MEM
UNLV
MEM
ML
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
ATS
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
TTL
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Ole Miss Rebels Unveil Full 2026 Football Slate: Dates, Kickoff …
yahoo 14 hours, 33 minutes ago
USC vs. Fresno State: Trojans Aim for Complete Performance in Fr…
pasadenastarnews 14 hours, 36 minutes ago
Mizzou's New $250M Stadium Project Honors Historic Rock M While …
kansascity 1 day, 20 hours ago
Ole Miss vs. Louisville: Key Matchups to Watch in Week 1 Showdown
si 2 days, 7 hours ago
Clemson's Dabo Swinney Rips 'Embarrassing' Roster Moves by LSU a…
islandpacket 2 days, 12 hours ago