Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Hou Christian @ Rice HCU @ RICE

HOUSTON CHRISTIAN

HOU CHRISTIANHCU

1-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Rice Stadium
View Odds Details →

RICE

RICERICE

1-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Julian Maceri
KEY GAME

Julian Maceri

#35 | Punter
@
Charlie Durkin
KEY GAME

Charlie Durkin

#29 | Punter
Player
Julian Maceri None-None
Charlie Durkin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOU CHRISTIAN
12%
📊
RICE
88%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (HCU)
HOU CHRISTIAN 6% Book Odds: +1500
RICE 97% Book Odds: -3600
Book Implied: 6.20% / 97.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.9
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 47.5 50%
Under 47.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+21.3
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
+22.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Houston Christian)
Hou ChristianHCU (+22.5) 0 RiceRICE (-22.5)
Houston Christian Huskies (+22.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hou Christian Cover

93.6%

Rice Cover

6.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HCU +21.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HCU)

HCU By 1-6 points

3.6%

HCU By 7-13 points

1.7%

RICE By 1-6 points

7.7%

RICE By 7-13 points

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
12.8
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Book Implied: 12.50
34.1
RICE
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
13
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Book Implied: 12.50
34
RICE
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rice Win
88% Win Prob
B
Sim Rice Win
98% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hou Christian (+22.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +21.3
D
Sim Hou Christian (+22.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.9
D
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 HCU @ RICE 3 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +181.9% more
Rice: 201.8 vs Houston Christian: 71.6
Total Yards (L5) +42.8% more
Rice: 302.1 vs Houston Christian: 211.7
First Downs (L5) +26.0% more
Rice: 17.0 vs Houston Christian: 13.5
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Rice: 0.6 vs Houston Christian: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HCU Score 12.8 3
RICE Score 34.1 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 13.5 27.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 201.8 / 71.6 465.0 / 148.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.65 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards 302.1 / 211.7 493.0 / 244.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +850 / -1450 → +1500 / -3600 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +22.5 / -22.5 → +22.5 / -22.5
54%TICKETS46%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 47.5
78%TICKETS22%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HCU
--
RICE Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HCU
--
RICE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
HCU
--
RICE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
HCU
RICE
HCU
ML
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
TTL
80% 4-1
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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