Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas St @ Memphis ARST @ MEM

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

0-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

2-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
TJ Grant
KEY GAME

TJ Grant

#20 | Defensive End
@
Philippe Laforge
KEY GAME

Philippe Laforge

#80 | Place kicker
Player
TJ Grant None-None
Philippe Laforge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
16%
📊
MEMPHIS
84%
ARKANSAS ST --
MEMPHIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+17.1
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Arkansas StARST (-3.5) 0 MemphisMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

88.9%

Memphis Cover

11.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARST +17.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

ARST By 1-6 points

5.8%

ARST By 7-13 points

3.2%

MEM By 1-6 points

10.7%

MEM By 7-13 points

17.4%

AI Model Projected Score
20.4
ARKANSAS STATE
37.5
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
20
ARKANSAS STATE
38
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Memphis Win
84% Win Prob
C
Sim Memphis Win
96% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arkansas St (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: +17.1
B
Sim Arkansas St (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: +18.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.9
D
Sim o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 ARST @ MEM 24 - 42
Sep 9, 2023 MEM @ ARST 37 - 3
Sep 17, 2022 ARST @ MEM 32 - 44
Sep 11, 2021 MEM @ ARST 55 - 50
Sep 5, 2020 ARST @ MEM 24 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.6% more
Memphis: 149.1 vs Arkansas State: 101.0
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Memphis: 0.5 vs Arkansas State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +45.2% more
Arkansas State: 1.9 vs Memphis: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +9.8% more
Arkansas State: 395.0 vs Memphis: 356.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 20.4 24
MEM Score 37.5 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 21.0 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 149.1 / 101.0 335.0 / 109.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 356.5 / 395.0 523.0 / 434.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.9 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +315 / -410 → +315 / -410
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +10.5 / -10.5
27%TICKETS73%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 57.5
27%TICKETS73%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
MEM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
MEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ARST
MEM
ARST
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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