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THE CITADEL

THE CITADELCIT

1-1  |  Road

43
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

0-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Jack Weil
KEY GAME

Jack Weil

#1 | Place kicker
@
Bronson Long
KEY GAME

Bronson Long

#95 | Punter
Player
Jack Weil None-None
Bronson Long None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
THE CITADEL
38%
📊
CHARLOTTE
62%
▲ Edge: +28.50% (CIT)
THE CITADEL 10% Book Odds: +950
CHARLOTTE 94% Book Odds: -1639
Book Implied: 9.50% / 94.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.9
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.6 (Under)
Over 49.5 35%
Under 49.5 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.5
THE CITADEL
Book Spread
+20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (The Citadel)
The CitadelCIT (+20.5) 0 CharlotteCLT (-20.5)
The Citadel Bulldogs (+20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

The Citadel Cover

65.3%

Charlotte Cover

34.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIT +5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIT)

CIT By 1-6 points

13.8%

CIT By 7-13 points

10.8%

CLT By 1-6 points

16.8%

CLT By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
18.7
THE CITADEL
Book Implied: 14.50
24.2
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
19
THE CITADEL
Book Implied: 14.50
24
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Charlotte Loss
62% Win Prob
D
Sim Charlotte Loss
68% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI The Citadel (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.5
B
Sim The Citadel (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.9
B
Sim u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 CIT @ CLT 43 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +70.9% more
Charlotte: 1.8 vs The Citadel: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +75.6% more
The Citadel: 176.9 vs Charlotte: 43.1
Time of Possession (L5) +12.0% more
The Citadel: 0.6 vs Charlotte: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 18.7 43
CLT Score 24.2 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 10.3 / 10.8 21.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 43.1 / 176.9 216.0 / 268.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.65 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 212.4 / 222.8 538.0 / 400.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1300 / -2800 → +950 / -1639 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +19.5 / -19.5 → +20.5 / -20.5 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 49.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
--
CLT Advantage
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -21.4 ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT
--
CLT Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -21.4 ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
--
CLT
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
CIT
CLT
CIT
ML
71% 5-2
67% 2-1
71% 5-2
67% 2-1
ATS
57% 4-3
100% 3-0
71% 5-2
100% 3-0
TTL
43% 3-4
0% 0-3
43% 3-4
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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